Tuesday, June 29, 2004
There had been some discussion previous to last night's outcome that the Green Party of Canada would split the left vote and spoil a number of wins for the NDP.
I didn't find that to be the case in any Nova Scotian ridings as the Greens were a non-factor in every riding. Even in the one riding where they did garner more than 2,000 votes (Halifax-Michael Oddy), the NDP did win by a somewhat decent margin (over 1,000 votes).
This was not so the case in Saskatchewan, the former province of Tommy Douglas and what used to be an NDP stronghold in the Prairies. There were at least two seats in Saskatchewan, Palliser and Saskatoon-Humboldt where if everyone who voted Green had voted for the Orange then the New Democrats would have won the seats (but not by hefty margins). The NDP were beaten by 124 votes and 431 votes respectively in those ridings. The 906 and 680 votes that went to the Greens in those ridings would have taken two seats away from Stephen Harper's Conservatives and bestowed them upon the NDP.
That is assuming that the Greens and the NDP have the same demographic. There's a good chance that the Greens draw people out who wouldn't otherwise vote, but considering voter turnout in Palliser (as it was across the country) was substantially lower in 2004 than it was in 2000, it's hard to give that argument any credence. There's a strong chance that the Greens did indeed play spoiler in Dick Proctor's riding. Proctor, an NDP, was voted in in 2000 despite the NDP being in the doldrums across the country.
Saskatoon Humboldt was ripe for the NDP pickings. Jim Pankiw, the popular former Alliance member, was running as an independent which meant the Conservative vote would be split (three ways if you consider the centrist Liberals). Unfortunately the Greens ran someone in this riding, as they did in every riding, and the NDP lost any edge they gained in the Conservative split. 680 votes wouldn't have giveb a huge margin of victory to the NDP, but it would have given them a victory.
If you had to argue with the Green's logic in running a candidate in every riding. In some areas, parts of B.C., Quebec, Nova Scotia, it makes sense. The NDP isn't involved in tight reaces in these areas (aside from McDonough's Halifax riding this year, which was a bit of a surprise) and hence the Greens aren't a huge deterrent to the NDP. However, you have to wonder about ridings where the NDP are fighting right down to the wire in order to wrest control of a riding away from the Conservatives. Is it a smart move for the Greens to run a candidate in those ridings who may take votes away from the NDP?
You have to admire the Greens for running a candidate in every riding. I can appreciate the fact that they need the popular vote in order to be a major player in the Canadian political scene, but I have to wonder about the logic of running candidates in close races where potential vote splitting could mean that a conservative voice is heard in Parliament over a progressive voice.
I don't regret my vote yesterday (I voted Green). I made an informed decision based on who I thought was the best candidate with the best platform. I do worry about how detrimental vote splitting can be though if the first past the post system of voting is allowed to continue.
Post Script
Check out what Green votes added to existing NDP votes would do in these ridings Westminister-Coquitlam and Vancouver Island North. Makes you wonder how different things would be today if the NDP had four more seats and the Conservatives had four less.
I didn't find that to be the case in any Nova Scotian ridings as the Greens were a non-factor in every riding. Even in the one riding where they did garner more than 2,000 votes (Halifax-Michael Oddy), the NDP did win by a somewhat decent margin (over 1,000 votes).
This was not so the case in Saskatchewan, the former province of Tommy Douglas and what used to be an NDP stronghold in the Prairies. There were at least two seats in Saskatchewan, Palliser and Saskatoon-Humboldt where if everyone who voted Green had voted for the Orange then the New Democrats would have won the seats (but not by hefty margins). The NDP were beaten by 124 votes and 431 votes respectively in those ridings. The 906 and 680 votes that went to the Greens in those ridings would have taken two seats away from Stephen Harper's Conservatives and bestowed them upon the NDP.
That is assuming that the Greens and the NDP have the same demographic. There's a good chance that the Greens draw people out who wouldn't otherwise vote, but considering voter turnout in Palliser (as it was across the country) was substantially lower in 2004 than it was in 2000, it's hard to give that argument any credence. There's a strong chance that the Greens did indeed play spoiler in Dick Proctor's riding. Proctor, an NDP, was voted in in 2000 despite the NDP being in the doldrums across the country.
Saskatoon Humboldt was ripe for the NDP pickings. Jim Pankiw, the popular former Alliance member, was running as an independent which meant the Conservative vote would be split (three ways if you consider the centrist Liberals). Unfortunately the Greens ran someone in this riding, as they did in every riding, and the NDP lost any edge they gained in the Conservative split. 680 votes wouldn't have giveb a huge margin of victory to the NDP, but it would have given them a victory.
If you had to argue with the Green's logic in running a candidate in every riding. In some areas, parts of B.C., Quebec, Nova Scotia, it makes sense. The NDP isn't involved in tight reaces in these areas (aside from McDonough's Halifax riding this year, which was a bit of a surprise) and hence the Greens aren't a huge deterrent to the NDP. However, you have to wonder about ridings where the NDP are fighting right down to the wire in order to wrest control of a riding away from the Conservatives. Is it a smart move for the Greens to run a candidate in those ridings who may take votes away from the NDP?
You have to admire the Greens for running a candidate in every riding. I can appreciate the fact that they need the popular vote in order to be a major player in the Canadian political scene, but I have to wonder about the logic of running candidates in close races where potential vote splitting could mean that a conservative voice is heard in Parliament over a progressive voice.
I don't regret my vote yesterday (I voted Green). I made an informed decision based on who I thought was the best candidate with the best platform. I do worry about how detrimental vote splitting can be though if the first past the post system of voting is allowed to continue.
Post Script
Check out what Green votes added to existing NDP votes would do in these ridings Westminister-Coquitlam and Vancouver Island North. Makes you wonder how different things would be today if the NDP had four more seats and the Conservatives had four less.
